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NOAA predicting a cold, wet winter |
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September 25, 2017 |
From the
Columbia Basin Bulletin, used with
permission
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration is reporting the summer of 2017
was the third warmest on record globally, with
the Pacific Northwest feeling the same heat, but
the region may be in for another cold, wet fall
and winter.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s most recent
El Nino Southern Oscillation outlook includes a
“La Nina Watch” with a 55-60 percent chance of
the pattern developing during the coming fall
and winter.
El Nino and La Nina weather patterns are driven
by Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, and
both patterns can be powerful influences on
weather across the greater Columbia River Basin.
“Yes, we are expecting La Nina conditions,” said
Dave Elson, a meteorologist with the National
Weather Service in Portland. “They have a La
Nina watch out right now, which means La Nina
through fall is likely. We did have a La Nina
last year.”
The last water year for the basin, starting in
October of 2016, was marked by
colder-than-average temperatures and
higher-than-normal precipitation, resulting in
record or near-record snowpacks covering
mountain ranges across the region.
Starting in September 2016, Spokane recorded
23.47 inches of rain and snow through the
following spring, short of the 1947-1948 record
of 28.9 inches, but well above the historic
average of 16 inches.
Similar precipitation came to areas across the
region.
“And it did lead to a big snowpack this spring,”
Elson said. “It was a pretty impressive year as
far as that goes.”
Elson cautioned that El Nino or La Nina patterns
don’t necessarily cause warmer-drier or
cooler-wetter weather, respectively.
“It’s hard to draw conclusions about what La
Nina means for the Pacific Northwest,” he said.
“It’s clear there’s a lot more that drives our
winters here that goes beyond El Nino or La
Nina.”
“Forecasters favor these predictions in part
because of recent cooling of surface and
sub-surface (ocean) temperature anomalies, and
also because of the higher degree of forecast
skill at this time of year,” the ENSO outlook
states.
It could be a sharp turn from a summer that
brought record-high heat and dryness in the
region.
Many counties in western Montana, northern Idaho
and western Washington received no precipitation
over a period lasting more than two months.
That mirrors global conditions.
“For the entire globe, both August and (the
summer) season (June, July and August) each went
down as the third warmest on record,” NOAA
stated in a recent climate report. “But
depending on where you live, the summer you
experienced may have felt warmer or cooler than
normal.”
August 2017 was 1.49 degrees above the
20th-century average of 60 degrees. This was the
highest in the 1880-2017 record, behind 2016,
the highest, and 2015, the second highest. The
seasonal global temperature for June through
August was 1.46 degrees above the average of 60
degrees — the third highest for this period in
the record, trailing 2016 and 2015, the highest
and second highest on record, respectively.
While the weather seemed to be baking dry to
people throughout the Columbia Basin,
temperatures across the Midwest were “much
cooler than average” or “near average” during
August and the summer season. |
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