Idaho employment better than expected

March 4, 2012

Revised employment figures for 2010 and 2011 indicate the recession was not as hard on Idaho workers as originally estimated, and new January 2012 unemployment estimates reinforce the state’s continued economic improvement. New figures revised by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics based on more recent population estimates and employment data show thousands more Idahoans were working the past two years and fewer were unemployed. That dropped the average unemployment rate for both years a half percentage point to 8.7 percent in 2010 and 8.8 percent in 2011. The new estimates also indicate Idaho is pulling out of the recession more slowly than other states. While Idaho’s 2010 average jobless rate ranked 28th among the states, the 8.8 percent rate for 2011 ranked 31st. At no time during the recession did unemployment in Idaho exceed 9 percent, well below original estimates that put the monthly rate at or above 9 percent for 20 of the 24 months. Neither did it exceed the national rate, maintaining a string of over 11 years that the state rate has been below the nation’s. Instead of peaking at 9.7 percent from December 2010 through March 2011 as originally estimated, Idaho’s unemployment rate peaked at 8.9 percent from August through December 2010 and then hit 8.9 percent again in July 2011 before a steady decline to 8.3 percent in December 2011, dropping further to 8.1 percent in January. The national rate was 8.3 percent in January. January’s rate was Idaho’s lowest monthly jobless rate since September 2009. Idaho workers with jobs rose another 1,900 from December to 712,600, the seventh straight monthly increase in employment to its highest level since November 2008. Fewer than 63,000 workers were without jobs in January, down 1,700 from December and the lowest number of unemployed since November 2009. The new employment figures are supported by the latest estimates for nonfarm jobs across the state. Employers had essentially leveled out their payrolls in 2010 and began hiring again, albeit cautiously, in January 2011. Payrolls expanded monthly through the year compared to the previous year, ending 2011 with 5,400 more jobs than at the end of 2010. It was the first year since 2006 that employers increased payrolls over the previous year. The revised picture for 2010 and 2011 was influenced heavily by more accurate population estimates for Idaho than were available when original estimates were made. That led to substantial increases in both the statewide labor force and the number of workers who had jobs over the past two years. Total employment has exceeded 700,000 for the past 12 months, and unemployment, originally thought to have peaked at 74,000 last winter, never got above 69,000 during the recession and its aftermath. While the year-over-year job loss at 7.4 percent in mid-2009 remains the worst in Idaho since World War II, the revised employment figures do not approach unemployment during the double-dip recession of the early 1980s when the jobless rate hit 9.6 percent in December 1982 through February 1983. February employment data and local area employment data for January will be released March 23.