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Japanese tsunami debris expected on
U.S. coast this winter |
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January 2, 2011 |
Debris from the tsunami that devastated Japan in
March could reach the United States as early as
this winter, according to predictions by NOAA
scientists.
However, they warn there is still a large amount
of uncertainty over exactly what is still
floating, where it's located, where it will go,
and when it will arrive.
Responders now have a challenging, if not
impossible situation on their hands: How do you
deal with debris that could now impact U.S.
shores, but is difficult to find?
To learn more about the tsunami debris, NOAA
researchers have been working with the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service, and other partners to
coordinate data collection activities.
NOAA and its partners are also coordinating an
interagency assessment and response plan to
address the wide-range of potential scenarios
and threats posed by the debris.
“We’re preparing for the best and worst case
scenarios — and everything in between,” says
Nancy Wallace, director for NOAA’s Marine Debris
Program.
As the tsunami surge receded, it washed much of
what was in the coastal inundation zone into the
ocean. Boats, pieces of smashed buildings,
appliances, and plastic, metal, and rubber
objects of all shapes and sizes washed into the
water — either sinking near the shore or
floating out to sea. The refuse formed large
debris fields captured by satellite imagery and
aerial photos of the coastal waters.
The Japanese government estimated that the
tsunami generated 25 million tons of rubble, but
there is no clear understanding of exactly how
much debris was swept into the water nor what
remained afloat.
Nine months later, debris fields are no longer
visible. Winds and ocean currents scattered
items in the massive North Pacific Ocean to the
point where debris is no longer visible from
satellite.
Vessels regularly traveling the North Pacific
have reported very few sightings. Only two
pieces have been clearly linked to the tsunami.
Computer models run by NOAA and University of
Hawaii researchers show some debris could pass
near or wash ashore in the Northwestern Hawaiian
Islands (in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument) as early as this winter,
approach the West Coast of the United States and
Canada in 2013, and circle back to the main
Hawaiian Islands in 2014 through 2016.
Researchers caution that models are only
predictions based on location of debris when it
went into the water, combined with historical
ocean currents and wind speeds.
Conditions in the ocean constantly change, and
items can sink, break down, and disperse across
a huge area. Because it is not known what
remains in the water column nor where,
scientists can’t determine with certainty if any
debris will wash ashore.
The worst-case scenario is boats and
unmanageable concentrations of other heavy
objects could wash ashore in sensitive areas,
damage coral reefs, or interfere with navigation
in Hawaii and along the U.S. West Coast.
Best case? The debris will break up, disperse
and eventually degrade, sparing coastal areas.
Debris will not go away completely, even in a
best-case scenario. Marine debris is an ongoing
problem for Hawaii and West Coast states, where
garbage and other harmful items regularly wash
up on beaches, reefs and other coastal areas.
For more information, see NOAA’s “Tracking
Marine Debris from the Japanese Tsunami” at
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/features/dec11/japan-tsunami-debris.html. |
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